Thursday, August 25, 2011

Alan's Weather- 08/25/11

The main thing to watch for today is the increasing likelihood of some showers and gusty thunderstorms mainly this afternoon, and especially from mid-afternoon into this evening. Highs well into the 80s and cooler at the beaches.

Sun and clouds tomorrow with a shower chance. Some rain or showers are increasing likely for Saturday, then all eyes point to Irene.

Irene is a Category 3 storm, but may yet be a Category 4 hurricane before it gets closer to the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Saturday evening. And then it's going to start to ride up the coast.

Now, one forecast model, the GFDL, which ironically was developed at Princeton, has it traveling inland up the Chesapeake Bay and up Reading, Lancaster, and Harrisburg. If that was the case, we would have heavy rain and strong winds, but not of the magnitude if the storm system moved up the coast.

We think the track of along the coastline or just off-shore will be the way to go. That means very strong winds and heavy rain later Saturday night, and part of Sunday.

With some luck, although the winds will be strong from the west, we may dry out and improve by later Sunday. Stay tuned.

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