Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/26/11

Starting with Tuesday's high temperatures. It ranged from as low as 63 at Wrightstown, Burlington County to as high as 67 in Atlantic City International Airport.

Today's temperatures will be a touch milder because I think we'll have variable clouds and some sunshine today with a few highs from 67 to perhaps 72. I've taken out just the chance of a shower. I think anybody that mentions it is crazy, so I didn't put it in my forecast for today.

Tonight's a different story. There will be showers developing during the hours after midnight and some lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s, but closer to 60 along the south coastal communities.

And as we expected, there will be some rain for Thursday with statewide highs from 52 to 62.

Sunshine comes back Friday with highs just in the 50s.

And it looks as though a storm system will be developing in the southeastern states and come close enough to us Saturday to bring us some wind and rain. But that will be gone in time to salvage a nice Sunday.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/25/11

Highest temperatures Monday reached 63 to 66, just a shade above the normal high of 62 to 64.

Today, we'll have lots of sunshine and mostly sunny with a brisk wind, though. Highs will be in the low to middle 60s, just a shade above the normal high for this time of the year.

We'll have clear to partly cloudy skies for the night ahead with some 40s for lows, but low 50s near the ocean.

Tomorrow, there is just the slight chance of a brief shower, but more than likely not with variable clouds and maybe some sun. Highs will be in the mid 60s to perhaps just a shade over 70 in southern New Jersey.

Then a disturbance riding the jet stream will bring some likely rain on Thursday with highs statewide from 53 to 63. Although, there's some sign that it could be milder than that in far southern New Jersey for Thursday afternoon.

Friday looks okay, and then we'll have to wait and see if we have a storm threat for Saturday. Some of the models are diverging on this idea, but I'm kinda leaning towards the idea of a storm creating rain and wind for Saturday.

Sunday looks okay from here.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/24/11

The weekend forecast worked out reasonably well. It was in the low to middle 60s both days. Yesterday, for example, Atlantic City reached 65, 61 in Trenton and Wrightstown, Burlington County. The normal high is 63 or 64 now, so we were within range of normal for this time of the year.

Today, we'll have clouds and some sun, but variable clouds. The risk of a scattered shower comes into the picture probably after the day is over, not until this evening or the first part of the night. A few scattered light showers are possible, and then we'll have some clearing during the early morning hours later tonight. Highs today in the 60, while lows tonight will be in the 40s, but perhaps a few 30s are possible in a few of the coolest spots.

There will be a gusty wind tomorrow with sunshine, and lots of it. Temperatures will be in the low to middle 60s Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday may have the risk of some showers once again, as the next weather system arrives.

We have a new tropical storm, Rina, the 17th of the season down in the Caribbean. It may drift around for a while before coming to the Yucatan Channel in the many days ahead.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Alan's Weekend Weather - 10/21/11

It only reached the low to middle 60s yesterday. Today will be no better than the low 60s as sunshine mixes with patchy clouds and a brisk wind, but not as much wind as yesterday.

A clear to partly cloudy night ahead with some lows in the mid 30s to low 40s, but upper 40s to around 50 south coast.

A partly sunny Saturday and Sunday await. Saturday's highs will be in the low 60s, and low to perhaps mid 60s for Sunday.

The National Weather Service has indicated a perhaps cold and snowy winter in their preliminary winter outlook.

They base it on a couple of things:
1. La Nina, which is present now and often makes southern storm tracks and coastal storms for New Jersey and the northeast.

2. Also, the Arctic Oscillation, or the North Atlantic Oscillation. If it's negative more than positive, it may have a detrimental effect on our winter.

We will have to wait and see.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/19/11

Well quite simply, the rain today that occurs in New Jersey can be heavy at times, enough that there can be areas that have between 1 and 2 inches of rain when all is said and done later tonight.

Now, that will hopefully not cause any concern other than minor flooding on roadways. Hopefully, streams, rivers, and creeks will be able to handle the rainfall, and we think it will. There will also be tidal flooding at the times of high tide early this afternoon along the oceanfront and later in the back bays.

Many temperatures will be just in the 60s. And some rain and showers will be around tonight with lows from 58 up to 67.

Windy tomorrow, but this time from the southwest. Dry, patchy clouds and sunshine with most highs Thursday in the upper 60s.

And partly sunny and breezy Friday, but cooler with some highs Friday only in the lower 60s.

That's probably where we will be, in the low to mid 60s, over the weekend with some sunshine. The weekend still looks fine from here.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/18/11

Highest temperatures yesterday reached 73 in Atlantic City, but a little bit cooler elsewhere with mainly in the upper 60s to near 70.

Today, with sunshine and patchy clouds, highs will be in the low to perhaps middle 70s this afternoon. It'll be a bit cooler near the ocean.

It'll cloud up in the night ahead. Watch for the chance of some rain late with statewide lows from 53 to 63.

A storm system will be coming up the East Coast tomorrow, and that means wind and rain. Some of the rain will be heavy at times. The winds will increase to 20 to 35 with higher gusts, especially along the coastline.

Some highs for Wednesday may not be out of the 60s. Rain may start tapering off by evening or at night.

I indicated just the chance of a shower early Thursday. I easily could have left that out of the forecast. Otherwise, partly sunny with a brisk wind and highs in the upper 60s Thursday afternoon.

And Friday and the weekend, look okay as of now.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/17/11

The weekend worked out pretty much as expected. Temperatures were maybe just a shade above what I predicted, which was well into the 60s. Yesterday, it reached 72 in Atlantic City, 70 in Newark Liberty Airport; just a shade above my upper 60s that I predicted for Sunday.

Today, we'll have temperatures that will be at or just a shade above 70 after just the chance of a passing shower in northern and central Jersey around daybreak this morning or shortly thereafter. We should have some clouds breaking with sunshine and a brisk wind. As I said, temperatures will be perhaps in the low 70s this afternoon with no sea breeze. today as far as I can tell.

Now, there may be a disturbance coming through later tonight or first thing early Tuesday morning with just the chance of a light shower or sprinkle toward daybreak Tuesday morning. Otherwise, clouds and some sunshine tomorrow with temperatures in the upper 60s to perhaps the low 70s.

Then, a storm system coming out of Yucatan Peninsula in the southern Gulf of Mexico will tie up with a cold front and bring some pretty good rain and wind here for Wednesday later this week.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Alan's Weekend Weather - 10/14/11

The normal high temperature for New Jersey now is 66 to 68. We were just about in that ballpark yesterday; Trenton 66, Atlantic City, and Wrightstown, Burlington County were 68.

Today will be in the 70s, despite the fact that we'll have some occasional showers moving through at any time. And there could be some heavy downpours, especially this afternoon and early this evening.

But by early this evening, the shower threat will be ending, and it should be clear overnight. Low will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, so much cooler.

It will be in the mid to upper 60s Saturday and partly sunny, but it will be a gusty wind. It will feel a little bit cooler than the actual air temperatures will be.

Sun and arriving clouds on Sunday with highs back in the 60s. I'm not mentioning any showers. There's a threat of a shower, I suppose, later in the afternoon or early in the evening in parts of the state northern and central Jersey. But, for the moment I'm keeping it rain free.

So again, some showers moving through today with some highs in the 70s, but cooler near the ocean.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/13/11

High temperatures Wednesday did not get out of the 60s, and probably the low to middle 60s, which is just a shade below the normal high of 66 to 68.

Today, we'll have some spotty light rain or drizzle around for a time this morning, here and there, but many of it's cloudy. Variable clouds this afternoon with the chance of a few possible showers with highs of 68 to 74, but cooler along the coast.

Another round of rain will move through tonight, and part of Friday. There's possible late clearing with lows tonight mostly in the 60s. Highs Friday back in the 70s, but a bit cooler tomorrow near the ocean.

The weekend should be okay. We should have some sunshine with a brisk wind on Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

Partly sunny Sunday with highs also in the 60s. A disturbance coming by to our north may produce a few spotty showers far in upstate New York later Sunday afternoon, but not in New Jersey for Sunday.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/12/11

High Temperatures yesterday ranged from 72 in Atlantic City to 77 at Newark Liberty Airport. 67 or 68 is the normal high temperature, so we were above normal any way you slice it.

Today, we'll be near or even a bit below normal with temperatures mainly in the 60s. There will be some areas of rain, mainly in southern and western counties this morning. Those will spread into central and northern New Jersey during the course of the afternoon.

And we'll have some rain around in the nighttime hours ahead with temperatures still mainly in the 60s with a few upper 50s. There will be some areas of fog to watch for later tonight.

Dampness and fog to start tomorrow, then variable clouds. There's still the chance of a shower, though. Thursday's highs will be back in the 70s, but a bit cooler tomorrow near the ocean.

Showers and fog are likely Friday morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon with some luck. Friday's highs in the 70s.

It'll be windy and cooler, but okay for Saturday.

And Sunday should be okay as well.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/11/11

Sky's will be mostly cloudy today. Now, there will certainly be some sunshine through the high cloud during the first half of the day. It may tend to become mostly cloudy this afternoon with some highs in the low to mid 70s, but a bit cooler than that near the ocean.

Some light rain arrives in parts of the state late tonight and during the early morning hours. Lows in the mid 50s to the lower 60s, but upper 60s along the south coast.

A wet and chilly day tomorrow with a brisk wind off the ocean and highs just into the 60s. It wouldn't be a surprise if there were a few 50s, especially in the northern and westernmost counties for highs tomorrow. So, a cool, wet Wednesday coming up.

Cloudy and damp to start early Thursday with some clouds and sun during the course of the day. Highs back in the 70s. There may be a shower late in the day or at night.

And then hopefully Friday and the upcoming weekend looks okay from here.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/10/11

High temperatures this weekend reached the upper 70s and low 80s for Saturday, and reached the middle to upper 80s yesterday, which was even higher than we predicted. Newark broke a record set in 1990 of 87 as it reached 88 there. Trenton-Mercer County Airport tied a record of 86 set all the way back in 1939. It was cooler 70s along the beach and boardwalk with a sea breeze yesterday.

Today we'll have sea breezes at the beaches and the temperatures will be right back into the 80s this afternoon. It'll be in the 70s to near 80s near the water with lots of sunshine and reasonably low humidity.

Tonight we'll have some high clouds and some partially clear skies. And we'll some high clouds which will sort of thicken up during the day Tuesday, and maybe become partly to mostly cloudy by late morning or afternoon. And then we'll have some rain and showers.

Now, the GFS forecast model wants to have some showers developing here by as early as later tomorrow night. I think that might be a little bit on the fast side, so I'm probably indicating the first chance of some rain or showers will be late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning in southernmost New Jersey, and then gradually moving through New Jersey pretty quickly on Wednesday.

Wednesday looks pretty wet around here with temperatures in some cases no better than the 60s with a brisk wind off the ocean.

We may come out of a bit on Thursday. We'll have more to say about that in future reports.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Alan's Weekend Weather - 10/07/11

High temperatures Thursday reached around or just a shade over 70; 71 at Newark Liberty Airport, 70 in Atlantic City, 69 Trenton and Wrightstown, Burlington County.

Today will be around 70 with lots of sunshine. It will be cooler near the ocean for the first time in days as a sea breeze springs up.

Tonight will be clear and chilly again with 40s, even a few 30s possible in the coolest spots, and some 50s in urban and coastal areas.

Lots of sunshine for the weekend, which will linger into Monday of next week, and perhaps even into Tuesday. I don't see any rain or showers until the middle of next week, say about Wednesday or so of next week.

Sunshine on Saturday and Sunday. Middle to perhaps upper 70s tomorrow, and upper 70s to low 80s for Sunday. It'll be cooler both days at the beaches.

Philippe is the storm that's still moving northeast towards the middle of the central Atlantic Ocean, and will be dying a slow death in the many many days ahead.

Have a great weekend.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Alan's Weather 10/06/11

Yesterday, I thought 73 or 74 would do it for the high temperature, and it did at Wrightstown and Trenton, but it did reach 75 in Atlantic City and at Newark Liberty Airport as well. So I was pretty close on the number.

Today will mostly be in the upper 60s with sunshine. There should be just enough of a north-northwest breeze to hold off the sea breeze for the most part today.

Tonight will be clear with temperatures back in the 40s, even a few 30s in the coolest spots again, and lower mid 50s in urban and coastal areas.

And pretty simple forecast: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, in fact right into the early part of next week, will have lots of sunshine. High Friday afternoon near 70, mid to perhaps upper 70s Saturday, and 78-82 Sunday. It'll be cooler all three days near the beach and boardwalk with a sea breeze.

Philippe is turning to the northeast now, but will be dying a slow death as it eventually turns into colder Atlantic waters, and becomes a tropical storm in the many days ahead.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/05/11

Boy, we've got some great weather ahead here in New Jersey. It's going to last not only through the work week, but right on through the weekend and early next week. No thoughts of any rain or showers for many days to come, thankfully.

We'll begin with today. It'll be mostly sunny and a milder Wednesday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s, probably in the realm of 73 or 74.

Tonight, clear and chilly again with some lows in the 40s. In fact, even a few 30s are possible in the lowest spots, and low 50s near the ocean.

Sunny tomorrow and sunny Friday with highs tomorrow in the upper 60s, and a bit cooler than today. It'll be near 70 or so Friday afternoon. It'll probably turn cooler each of the afternoons along the coast with a sea breeze.

The weekend will be filled with sunshine. Low to perhaps mid 70s Saturday, and upper 70s pushing 80 Sunday. Again, it'll be cooler near the beach and boardwalk with a sea breeze both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/04/11

I predicted near 60 yesterday. That worked out with a scattering of showers, also as predicted.

There's the chance of a shower or two around, I suppose, but otherwise sunshine and some clouds with highs in the milder 60s, and probably the mid-60s or so this afternoon.

It should be mainly clear tonight with some lows in the 40s, but low or mid 50s in the big cities and along the beach and boardwalk.

Sunny tomorrow with a brisk wind with highs in the mild or low 70s; 71, 72 may be the way to go.

It'll be sunny again Thursday, but maybe a touch cooler. For some reason, Guidance only wants to have upper 60s, so that's the way I went for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look excellent from here. I don't see any reason not to pick really nice weather for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It should be in the 70s this weekend, and perhaps even pushing 80 degrees by the time we get to Sunday just away from the ocean.

Felipe is still hanging in there as a tropical storm, almost a hurricane now. It's going to be shifting from west to the northeast direction farther out to sea in the days ahead.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Alan's Weather - 10/03/11

The weekend forecast worked out reasonably well. We had times of clouds and sunshine, and also the risks of some scattered showers that were mentioned in the forecast either day. And that worked out in parts of the state, but not all.

Temperatures on Sunday, by the way, except for Newark-65, got barely above 60 or 61. It was only 59 Sunday in Wrightstown, Burlington County.

Well, temperatures today will be mostly in the 50s to the perhaps low 60s, or just a shade over 60 with more clouds than sun for our Monday. There is the risk of some scattered showers at any time. Those scattered showers will be planning until at the least the first half of the night before tapering off, especially in central and south Jersey later at night.

Tuesday will offer more clouds than just some sunshine, and also the risk of some scattered showers. Although, the shower activity may not be as widespread Tuesday as it will be today.

Wednesday will have a brisk north-northwest wind with more in the way of sunshine returning. Temperatures Wednesday could be up to near 70 degrees in afternoon.